Different regulations have also emerged in China at the municipal level. Notably, several European countries have launched independent efforts to create regulations, rather than coordinating with one another. In our survey, 60 percent of respondents viewed the need for regulatory support as the greatest bottleneck to autonomous driving those in Europe were most likely to voice this sentiment (Exhibit 2). That said, many other countries lack overarching, comprehensive regulations, as do many cities. Some countries have recently introduced regulations about autonomous driving, with Germany issuing particularly robust guidelines. Use cases for closed environments, such as port/drayage trucks and yard hoppers, are also likely to be adopted early. We believe that trucking is likely to be one of the earliest use cases for autonomy in the commercial segment.
Survey respondents expect these services to be commercially available in 2026 or later. Most of these tests are being conducted in the Sun Belt states because they have favorable weather and favorable regulatory conditions.
Autonomous consumption driver#
These tests include a safety driver behind the wheel. They go from one hub that is directly connected to the highway to another. Multiple truck OEMs and autonomous-system providers are conducting pilots in North America in which fully autonomous trucks drive on highways. Survey respondents expect these at-scale rollouts to occur in 2026 or later, with China and the United States leading the market. The earliest at-scale applications are likely to emerge in larger markets-typically city centers-that have a higher volume of trips and generally experience good weather. These early L4 highway pilots will likely be limited to sites with premapped highways and good weather they will exclude certain operational design domains (ODD), such as merging on highways or highway crossings.Įarly robotaxi services are already available in select markets, but the path to at-scale commercialization remains challenging because of the need for technological advances, regulatory support, and available capital.
Our research at McKinsey suggests that highway pilots involving the next generation of autonomous vehicles will occur in the near future, with rollout to volume or mass-market platforms coming later. Respondents from start-ups were more bullish about these timelines than respondents from more traditional companies. In our survey, respondents believe that the first applications of L4 highway pilots-those involving a higher degree of automation and higher speeds than traffic-jam pilots-will be possible by 2024 or 2025 for private cars (Exhibit 1). The first 元 traffic-jam pilots, in which autonomous systems will control driving and monitoring in some situations, have already received regulatory approval. But they also speak to the real-world challenges of regulation, at-scale commercialization, and access to the formidable sums of capital required to realize the vision of autonomous cars, especially those with self-driving capabilities. Their responses, summarized here, tell a story of remarkable technology advances and abundant entrepreneurial energy. Some were startups while others were incumbents, including OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers.
Autonomous consumption software#
When will autonomous vehicles (AVs) hit the road? What enablers will contribute to their widespread adoption? And what technologies will be critical on the road to autonomy? To answer these questions and more, we surveyed 75 executives from automotive, transportation, and software companies working on autonomous driving worldwide.
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